中国循证医学杂志

中国循证医学杂志

生存分析在药物经济学评价 Markov 模型转移概率计算中的应用

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在药物经济学评价的研究中,Markov 模型作为一种决策分析模型被广泛应用。Markov 模型中需考虑疾病风险随时间变化的特性时,各 Markov 健康状态间转移概率参数的计算既是重点也是难点,而生存分析可以提供一种可行的解决方案。本研究通过探讨生存分析在计算动态 Markov 模型转移概率时,基于累积概率密度函数的新方法,并结合胃癌 Markov 模型进行实例分析,为开展相关研究的学者提供参考。

Markov model is one of the decision analysis models, which is widely used in pharmacoeconomic evaluation studies. In terms of dealing with changes of disease risks during different times, the transition probabilities among different Markov health states becomes hard to calculate. Nevertheless, survival analysis is an available resolution. In this paper, we introduced how to apply survival analysis in calculation of transition probability in time-dependent model based on cumulative probability with a case analysis on advanced gastric cancer Markov model, and provide more information for researchers to build models.

关键词: 生存分析; 药物经济学; Markov 模型; 转移概率; 胃癌

Key words: Survival analysis; Pharmacoeconomics; Markov model; Transition probability; Gastric cancer

引用本文: 周挺, 马爱霞. 生存分析在药物经济学评价 Markov 模型转移概率计算中的应用. 中国循证医学杂志, 2018, 18(10): 1129-1134. doi: 10.7507/1672-2531.201801088 复制

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